How Can You Predict Cricket Matches?

Most cricket enthusiasts at some point certainly think about how they can predict cricket matches. It brings a lot of excitement and fun to the cricket fans, moreover, after the launch of the T20 tournament, match prediction became an emerging hot trend. Plus, the fans are curious to know whether their favorite is going to win or not. However, the question is logical but it involves a huge analysis that is required to perform before predicting the cricket match. It is nearly impossible to predict a cricket match without going through proper analysis. If you are a hardcore cricket fan and follow international tournaments, domestic tournaments and bilateral series, then you already will be knowing the importance of analysis. Let’s dig further and know how to predict cricket matches, with the help of some examples. 

Factors and Analysis Important for Predicting a Cricket Match

 There are certain factors you need to take into account for the match prediction. 

  1. Team Rankings 
  2. Recent Form of the team 
  3. Home Advantage 
  4. Head to Head 
  5. Player Analytics 
  6. Field Condition 
  7. Point Table 

Here, in this guide, we will try and explain cricket prediction tips with the examples from Test/T20/ODI cricket matches. 

Team Ranking 

The team ranking process was initiated by ICC to address the teams which are dominating presently. ICC team ranking has a huge role to play when it comes to cricket prediction. 

For example: 

2020 Match Prediction – Australia Tour of South Africa – 21 Feb 2020 to 07 March 2020 

3 ODIs and 3 T20Is

Australia South Africa
ICC T20 Rankings  2nd  5th 
ICC ODI Rankings  5th  4th 

 

While Australia toured South Africa, the team accomplished two series of matches. The table above shows that Australia was ahead of South Africa in ICC T20, while South Africa was ranked above Australia in ICC ODI. Convincing the results of both teams performances, the experts predicted Australia as the winner of ICC T20 matches and South Africa as the winner of ODI Cricket matches.  

Actual Results:  

South Africa became the winner of all ODI matches while Australia won 2 T20 matches out of 3. *Prediction Matched* 

Recent/Current Forms of Team 

The recent form of a cricket team has a deep impact on the prediction of a match. If a team is performing comparatively better than its opponent or the counterpart team, then the former team is expected to have better chances of winning a match. Moreover, before the experts predict the outcome, they analyze at least the last 5 matches played by the team to extract an idea about its performance in the upcoming match 

For example: 

2020 Match Prediction – India Tour of New Zealand – 24 Jan 2020 to 02 Feb 2020

5 T20

Recent Form  India  New Zealand 
The Results of 5 Recent Matches Before the Match. Win Loss 
Win Loss
Win Win 
Loss  Win
Win Loss 
Total Wins  4 Wins 2 Wins

 

According to the experts’ predictions, India was to be the winner of the T20 matches of the series. The experts had seen the current form of Indian players, which was far better than New Zealand. Moreover, there is a clear denomination of India in the T20 series, since India won 4 out of 5 matches before the New Zealand tour while NZ managed to win only 2 out of 5 matches. Further, India had a complete trumpet over New Zealand with 5-0 in the T20I series. 

Actual Result:

The form of the Indian team was excellent in the T20 format. As a result, India became the winner of all T20 matches. *Prediction Matched*

Home Advantage 

Another factor that plays a vital role in the match prediction is home advantage. A home team is the one that is playing in its home ground. Home teams are usually at benefits of their own field. Certain factors work in their favor, such as the radius of the cricket field, pitch, game plans against weather conditions, and moral support and cheers from the supporters. All these factors increase the confidence of the home team and leave a great impact on the prediction of the match. 

For example:

2019 Match Prediction – Sri Lanka Tour of Australia – 24 Oct 2019 – 01 Nov 2019 

4 T20s 

                Home Ground                Foreign Ground
                    Australia                  Sri Lanka 

 

In the last phase of 2019, Sri Lanka toured Australia for the T20 series. It is the most common fact that Australia is unbeatable at their home ground. Beating the Australian Cricket team at their ground is close to impossible. Besides that, Australia is the host of the T20 cricket league Big Bash, which is one of the world’s most competitive leagues. Hence, the experts had already predicted that Kangaroos would win the series, and the Australian team defeated Sri Lanka with a big gap (3-0). 

Actual Results: 

Australia won all the matches in the series. *Prediction Matched*

Head to Head 

Head to Head matches are the way to check the ability of the teams. Before a match prediction, it is better to have a look at the head to head matches between the teams to figure out who is superior. Although the results of the cricket matches are uncertain, a team with a better head to head record is expected to win the upcoming series or match. Hence, we can say that head to head has a great significance in the match prediction. 

For Example: 

2020 Match Prediction – New Zealand tour of Australia – 13 March 2020 

1 ODIs 

Head to Head Records  New Zealand  Australia 
2016 Loss Win 
2016 Loss Win
2017 Win  Loss
2017 Win  Loss
2019 Loss Win 
Total  2 Wins  3 Wins 

 

The table above depicts Kangaroos (Australian Cricket Team) as the winner of the head to head matches against Black Caps (New Zealand Cricket team). These are records before ODI matches where Australia won 3 matches and New Zealand made it to only two matches. Therefore, the head to head record completely has an impact on the prediction and outcome. 

Back Caps toured Australia for 3 ODIs and 3 T20Is, but due to the unfortunate outbreak of Coronavirus, only 1 ODI match was played as per the schedule. In that ODI match, Australia won by 71 runs. Before this recent match, both the teams have played against each other for 136 times, among which Australia won 91 times and New Zealand enjoyed victory for 38 times. Hence, looking at the previous records, experts had predicted Australia to win. 

Actual Result 

Australia was the victorious team. *Prediction Matched*

Player Analytics 

Player Analytics is another one of the most important aspects when it comes to predicting a match. It is a simple calculation or a mathematical observation for predicting the cricket matches. First of all, select the top players from both the teams and compare the top bowlers and batsmen. With this calculation or comparison, you will have the idea about which team is dominating the match, with empowering players in it. All you have to do is make a proper comparison of listed players, based on which can make an accurate prediction for the upcoming matches. 

For Example:

3rd ODI Match Prediction – India Vs Australia – 19 Jan 2020

ODIs

Australia  India 
Batsman SR AVG Batsman SR AVG
David Warner  95.76 45.41 Shreyas 100.81 49.87
Aaron Finch 88.70 41.03 VK 93.25 59.34
Steven Smith 86.67 42.47 Rohit  88.93 49.27
Total 273.13 128.91 Total 282.99 158.44
Decision  Good  Good Decision Better Better

 

When you see the table, it showcases that the top 3 batsmen of India are excelling from Australian top 3 batsmen in terms of Strike Rate (SR) and Batting Average (AVG). Therefore, India was considered ahead of Australia having a better batting lineup. 

Australia  India 
Bowlers Econ AVG Bowlers Econ AVG
Pat Cummins 5.16 27.55 Md. Shami 5.59 25.42
Mitchell Starc 5.11 22.23 Kuldeep Yadav 5.11 5.8
Josh Hazelwood 4.75 25.68 Jaspreet Bumrah 4.56 24.43
Total 15.02 75.46 Total 15.26 76.01
Decision  Good  Good Decision Better Better

 

The above table compares the Economy Rate (Econ) and Bowling Average (AVG) between the bowlers of both teams. This comparison depicts a very thin margin between the bowling units, and India again is ahead of Australia. 

With these tables, you can easily analyze the players on both teams, just like the experts did. They summarized the whole scenario and created an overall picture of both competitors to figure out the team with a better squad, where India seemed to be a winner against Australia. 

Actual Results: 

India was the winner of the match. *Prediction Matched*

Point Table

At the beginning of a tournament, the potential winner can be judged only after a few matches of the tournament. An estimate can be made in the first phase of the tournament based on the performance of the participating teams. The team that generally occupies the top position on the point table has more chances to bag the winnings. 

For Example

Momentum ODI Cup 2020 Match Prediction – Dolphins vs Knights – 1st Semi-Final – 17 March 2020

T20 

Teams  Matches  Won Lost NR Points NRR
Dolphins 10 7 3 0 30 +0.698
Lions 10 6 4 1 28 +0.369
Warriors 10 5 5 1 24 +0.132
Knights 10 4 6 2 22 -0.364
Titans 10 4 6 0 18 -0.087
Cape Cobras  10 2 8 2 8 -0.884

 

The point table above belongs to Momentum ODI Cup 2020, where Dolphins is the top team of the tournament with 30 points. The team also won the highest number of matches (7) so far. Dolphins was to face Knights (4th position on point table) in the first semi-final of the tournament. After observing the point table, the experts predicted Dolphins to be the winner of the 1st semi-final match. 

Actual Result:

The match got cancelled due to the Coronavirus outbreak. 

Field Condition 

The Cricket field condition has truly a great impact on the prediction of the matches. Believe it or not, a field can decide the outcome of the match in numerous situations. 

For Example:

2020 Match Prediction – India Vs Australia, 1st ODI – 14 Jan 2020

Cricket Field  Toss Won By Team  Toss Winner opt to 
Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai

Field Condition:

  • Pitch is Batting-friendly 
  • Compatible for 4s and 6s
  • Can be chased by batting
                                            

 

 

          Australia          


Bowl First 

 

India was playing against Australia in the first match of the 3-match ODI series at Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai. The stadium is known for its batting-friendly conditions, and therefore, most toss-winning teams choose to bowl first, and Australia did the same. Since Wankhede stadium is short, it is easy to hit six and fours, which makes chasing the scores flexible and easy. The same happened in the 1st ODI match, where India scored 255 runs, while Australia won by 10 wickets. 

Actual Result:

Australia enjoyed a great victory by winning over 10 wickets. *Prediction Matched*

So, these were all the essential pieces you needed to know about predicting a match. By keeping a check on all the factors, you can probably become a prediction expert, and bag a lot of money by betting on the winning team. 

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