The Right Way to calculate Cricket Odds Ratio

If you are a cricket freak and want to know everything about the game, or you want to try hands at cricket betting, there is one thing that you must know about – “Calculating Cricket Betting Odds”. Just like in other sports, odds in crickets are represented in fraction or decimal format. You have the option to see them in either of the formats. In the gambling and betting industry, odds matter a lot. Thus, besides understanding what odds are, it is equally important to understand how to calculate them. 

These odds are the results of probabilities, it is pure mathematics. The bookmakers and betting sites like Betwinner and Melbet, estimate the probability of the match outcome, once they have made the estimate, they usually tweak the numbers and convert them into a format the viewers can understand. Wondering why they do it? Simple, to make a profit!

And if you too want to make a profit, then it is very crucial to understand these probabilities and equations. With the knowledge of decoding the odds and probability, you can figure out the best bets to be placed. You have to make positive expected value bets (+EV bets). However, to understand what is +EV, you need to get started with the outcomes. 

Probable Outcomes for The Coin Flip 

Let us understand the concept of probability with a simple example of a coin toss. There are two possible outcomes when a coin is tossed. 

  • First Outcome: 50% chance of Landing Heads 
  • Second outcome: 50% chance of Landing Tails 

We assume everyone has read probability chapters in Mathematics, where we have all learnt that probabilities are denoted in numbers between 0 and 1. Another way to express probability is in percentage, the decimal figure is multiplied (probability) by 100. So, in the above example, the probability of landing a coin on either side is 0.5. Since the number of outcomes to occur is/are 1 while the possible outcomes are two. When you multiply the probability by 100, you get 50%. And when you have to obtain probability from the percentage, the reverse procedure is followed, which means, you have to divide 50(%) by 100, which offers the probability of 0.5. 

Now that you have become more familiar and comfortable with the percentage and probability thing, you can proceed with converting them to odds. Let’s assume that you have the probability, and to convert them to odds, 1 is divided by the probability, for a better understanding, have a look below. 

  • 1/probability = odds 
  • Coin toss odd: 1/0.5 = 2.00

For a better understanding, lets us take an example of a dice roll. In a dice roll, the probable outcome of appearing in a single number is determined as 0.167, and in terms of percentage, you get the number 16.7%. Since here we are determining the odds, we will use probability in odds equation:

  • Single number landing odds: 1 / 0.167 = 6.00 (rounded up for 5.98)

Calculating the Expected Value (EV)

Now that we have covered basic areas like percentages, probabilities, and odds, we can go head with calculating EV. As we have already mentioned above, as a cricket bettor you will have to make +EV bets. The reason behind it is that if the numbers are correct, your expected value should be positive which means long-term profit, especially when you stick to the bankroll management strategy. 

  • Expected Value (EV) = (winning amount * probability of winning) + (lost amount * probability of losing)

Looking back at the example of dice, if you decide to stake ₹100 on number 4, the odds determined by the bookmaker on the number is 6.0. Then this information explains it as a neutral Estimated Value Bet. 

  • When number 4 appears on dice – You win ₹600. (Here you will have one way to win)
  • When number 1, 2, 3, 5. 6 appear – You lose ₹100 (here you have 5 ways to lose)
  • EV = (1/6 X 500) + (5/6 X -100) = 83.333 + (-83.333) = 0

Since the outcome here is zero, you cannot expect to make a long-term profit or loss, this way, it is considered as a neutral estimated value.

Understanding the Bookmaker’s Equation 

Since cricket betting is business, if a bookmaker shares exact odds with you, they won’t be able to make a profit. Therefore, the betting offered by bookies is always slightly different from the true odds. For instance, we calculated the odds for the coin toss as 2.0, a bookie may share it as 1.80 when you opt to bet on tails. The booker equation for an estimated value will be:

  • EV = (1/2 X 100) + (1/1.80 X -100) = 50 + (-55.55) = -55.5

Since the outcome of the equation is a minus number, we can say that the bet has a negative Estimated value. Confused? Let’s understand this equation differently, with the help of probability and odds. 

  • Every second toss, when you bet on tails you’ll win ₹80 ( ₹100 stake X 1.80 = ₹180 – ₹100 stake = ₹80 profit)
  • Every second toss, when you bet on tails, you will lose ₹100 ( this means, if the coins lands on heads, your stake for ₹100 will be lost)

Let us now calculate your estimated value for the true probability for a coin toss, which is 0.5, the equation will look like. 

  • ₹80 x 0.5 + -₹100 x 0.50 = -₹10.00

The equation says that when your odds are 1.80 you will lose ₹10 when you bet on tails. And in the bookies, they will make a long-term profit of ₹10, when you accept this offered bet. 

When you understand, EV concept and calculate it on your own, you must ask for the Return on Investment (ROI). Return on Investment is the amount you get on winning when you manage to produce the bet thousands of times. 

In the cricket betting field, anything can happen in the short term. The luck can be in your favor and you can win numerous times consecutively. However, it is always advised to strategize for long-term profits. And this is where ROI and EV show their importance.

  • ROI = EV/staked amount 
  • ROI = -₹10 / ₹100 = -0.10 x 100 = -10%

The above equation and the outcomes demonstrate that the odds of 1.80 on the coin toss are not very good. Here you will lose 10% from your investment on the bet, which means your EV is negative, which should not be the case. You will have to make sure that your estimated value is positive. 

Incorporating Your EV in Cricket Bet Strategy 

You as a cricket better must understand the connection between probabilities, EV, odd, and ROI because these are the factors that determine your profits. However, we all know that betting is a ‘no-guarantee area’, but these equations may help you to make long-term profits. You ultimately have to understand the difference between +EV and -EV bets. Consider yourself to be on the right path if you can understand the difference between the two. However, it is not very easy to spot the right bet, even if you know the mathematics behind it.  

When we find the probability and odds of dice rolls or coin toss, the outcomes are fixed. But when it comes to big things like cricket tournaments, it gets harder to determine the probabilities, since there are so many known and unknown variables, it becomes difficult to determine the exact figure. All the estimates and guessing work is as hard as bookies, they have to go through all the equations and calculations just as you. 

If you come across a set of odds that does not look straight, they can have +EV. It may be possible that the bookies wrongly estimated the probability. And if you have more knowledge than the bookie, and you figure out the flaws in their equations, you can win the entire game, in this scenario. 

Well, you only have to stick to the process, for picking +EV bets. You will have to do your own calculations and compare them with the bookie offerings to make sure you come betting value chances regularly and enjoy long-term profits. 

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