Cricket is quite a popular game in India as in many other countries. Betting for cricket has been around for a long time now, but recent times have seen a surge in online betting on the sport. One of the popular formats for e-betting today is value betting. It is when you bet on odds that does not reflect the winning probabilities accurately but have better chances of earning money in the long run. The bottom line here is, betting on the odds that offer better value-hence the name “value betting”
Value betting is a popular betting method, especially in cricket. It enables you to pocket more cash in less time, as compared to betting on the right odds. If you want to know all about cricket value betting, this is just the right place!
This blog will tell you all there is to know about value bets. So, let us get started!
Value Betting Explained
As already mentioned, this form of betting is primarily based on higher-value offered by the odds. It is not only beneficial for the bettors but also the bookmakers.
For instance, a coin flip only has two odds- heads and tails. If a bookmaker offers 50-50 value for both odds, he won’t make as many profits. Alternatively, if he offers a value of 70 on heads and 30 on tails, people are most likely to bet on heads to get more value- hence the profit for the bookie.
This percentage works in a decimal system. The calculation is simple- Divide the total percentage (100) by the percentage of the odds of an event happening. In this case, the odds of each event happening is 50 each, so the decimal equals 2.0. This is the base of odds. With this in mind, anything offering a decimal of over 2.0 is a value bet.
In a coin flip, your chances of winning are always 50-50. You may lose and win the game multiple times. But if you place your bets on greater values, you win more money each time you win. In the long run, irrespective of the number of times you win or lose, you pocket much larger amount than if you have had bet on the lower value odd.
To make the full use out of your bets, you should be able to find such bookies who offer higher value bets on underestimated odds.
Finding a Value Bet
If the odds are simple as flipping a coin, it is not all that difficult to find a value bet. However, cricket matches are much more complicated than that. You have to do a lot of research and math to be able to spot a value bet and beat those narrow margins to win money. But we are here to help you simplify the process.
The first step to find a value bet is checking the bookie’s odds and quantifying the odds into percentages. For instance, if you want to bet on a New Zealand Vs. West Indies match. The odds of West Indies is 2.60. Dividing it by 100 gives us 38.46%.
Now calculate the real odds of West Indies winning the match based on previous performances and new developments. Maybe you find that the team has a 55% chances of winning. Multiply this by the bookie’s offs and deduct 100 to get the value. In this case, it totals to 43%. This confirms it as a value bet.
Although the value doesn’t confirm that the team will certainly win but in the long run, you will be able to capitalize on the amount and if the team wins, Kaching!
Sometimes during the calculations, you might find that the total percentage exceeds 100. This is because of the booker’s margin. The number by which the percentage exceeds 100 is the booker’s overround or profit margin.
Say, for example, the percentage equals 105.5% it means that each time someone bets Rs.1055 and wins, the bookie will pay out Rs.1000 and the rest Rs.55 is his profit. That is how they make money.
The margin system is the reason for value bets and why bookies offer such balanced odds. If they offer high value on a single odd, everyone would prefer that and end up draining the bookie out of money to payout.
Applying Value to the Bets
Now that you know how booker’s margins work, you should understand that the value they provide are mere opinions and driven by their profit. Apart from that, it is also not possible to have the most precise values of odds for any sports match. The odds may be backed up by accounting for all relevant information, yet incorrect in reality.
Another factor to take into account is that bookies know your favourite teams and betting patterns, and they cash on it while offering betting values. That is why you need to take the booker’s values by a grain of salt and do your research to find the underestimated bets to get an edge.